The following conclusions are derived from this study:
- Droughts are a recurrent feature of the climate,
varying in intensity, duration, and frequency across the climatic spectrum.
A drought can have substantial economic, environmental, and social impacts.
- The Ojos Negros valley, in Baja California, Mexico,
has an arid climate and is, therefore,
subject to frequent droughts.
Agriculture and animal husbandry are the primary economic activities in the valley.
Irrigated agriculture is entirely supported by groundwater, while animal husbandry is accomplished
primarily by dryland farming.
Drought intensity varies from severe in the Ojos Negros valley to moderate across the region.
48% of the drought events in the region are classified as moderate; 34% as severe; and 18% as extreme.
Drought duration varies from 2 yr in the Ojos Negros valley to 2.44 yr in the region.
Drought frequency varies from 3.54 yr in the Ojos Negros valley to 3.96 yr in the region.
The analysis shows that droughts in the Ojos Negros region are likely to be moderate, to last 2 yr, and to recur every 4 yr on the average.
Planning for drought mitigation should take these characteristics into account.
Appropriate herd management in Ojos Negros can help reduce the impact of drought. The members of the herd should be evaluated
to eliminate those that are less useful.
Planning for herd size should consider the periodicity of drought.
- A program of soil-and-water conservation is needed in the Ojos Negros valley
to help cope with recurrent droughts.
Farmers should save water during protracted drought periods to ensure sustainability of the water resource.